Myths
The gambler's fallacy
The gambler's fallacy is the belief that a long absence makes an outcome more likely: '17 hasn't appeared in 30 draws, so it's due.' On an independent lottery, the opposite reasoning is wrong in a specific way — the odds never change.
The logic error
Coins and lottery balls have no memory. If a fair coin lands heads ten times in a row, the probability of heads on the next toss is still 50%. If a number is absent for 40 draws, its chance in the next draw is still 1 in 49 (for a 6/49 game).
The fallacy feels right because of the law of large numbers: over millions of draws, frequencies settle toward their expected values. But the settling happens by future draws being ordinary, not by any single overdue outcome being 'paid back.'
Check it against the data
The reality-check page tests this directly: it measures how often the coldest 25% of numbers appear in the next draw versus every other number. They appear at the same rate — in real history and in simulated random history.