Number 2

Could this absence happen by chance?

How the observed value compares with real history and with fair, independent random draws.

Current absence (draws)

15

Within real history

39.0%

of historical values were ≥ observed

In simulated random history

100.0%

of 40 simulated histories (seed 20260601)

A gap this long is within the range you'd expect from chance alone. Historical frequency does not change the odds of any future draw.

Past frequency never changes the odds of a future draw — this only describes how remarkable the observation is.