Number 11

Could this absence happen by chance?

How the observed value compares with real history and with fair, independent random draws.

Current absence (draws)

62

Within real history

2.1%

of historical values were ≥ observed

In simulated random history

100.0%

of 40 simulated histories (seed 20260601)

A gap this long is rare — it occurred in only 2.1% of comparable cases. That makes it an unusual observation, not a signal about future draws.

Past frequency never changes the odds of a future draw — this only describes how remarkable the observation is.