September 24, 2011

Could this sum happen by chance?

How the observed value compares with real history and with fair, independent random draws.

Draw sum

90

Within real history

96.7%

of historical values were ≥ observed

In simulated random history

98.2%

of 2000 simulated histories (seed 20260601)

A sum this high is common — it occurred in 97% of comparable cases. Nothing unusual here.

Past frequency never changes the odds of a future draw — this only describes how remarkable the observation is.