September 17, 2011

Could this sum happen by chance?

How the observed value compares with real history and with fair, independent random draws.

Draw sum

123

Within real history

84.8%

of historical values were ≥ observed

In simulated random history

89.4%

of 2000 simulated histories (seed 20260601)

A sum this high is common — it occurred in 85% of comparable cases. Nothing unusual here.

Past frequency never changes the odds of a future draw — this only describes how remarkable the observation is.