October 27, 2010

Could this sum happen by chance?

How the observed value compares with real history and with fair, independent random draws.

Draw sum

181

Within real history

39.5%

of historical values were ≥ observed

In simulated random history

45.5%

of 2000 simulated histories (seed 20260601)

A sum this high is within the range you'd expect from chance alone. Historical frequency does not change the odds of any future draw.

Past frequency never changes the odds of a future draw — this only describes how remarkable the observation is.