May 12, 2010

Could this sum happen by chance?

How the observed value compares with real history and with fair, independent random draws.

Draw sum

251

Within real history

3.4%

of historical values were ≥ observed

In simulated random history

4.3%

of 2000 simulated histories (seed 20260601)

A sum this high is rare — it occurred in only 3.4% of comparable cases. That makes it an unusual observation, not a signal about future draws.

Past frequency never changes the odds of a future draw — this only describes how remarkable the observation is.