Number 40

Could this absence happen by chance?

How the observed value compares with real history and with fair, independent random draws.

Current absence (draws)

2

Within real history

89.4%

of historical values were ≥ observed

In simulated random history

100.0%

of 40 simulated histories (seed 20260601)

A gap this long is common — it occurred in 89% of comparable cases. Nothing unusual here.

Past frequency never changes the odds of a future draw — this only describes how remarkable the observation is.