March 31, 2010

How unusual was this draw?

Where this draw's statistics fall relative to the full historical dataset.

Could this sum happen by chance?

How the observed value compares with real history and with fair, independent random draws.

Draw sum

222

Within real history

1.6%

of historical values were ≥ observed

In simulated random history

1.0%

of 2000 simulated histories (seed 20260601)

A sum this high is rare — it occurred in only 1.0% of comparable cases. That makes it an unusual observation, not a signal about future draws.

Past frequency never changes the odds of a future draw — this only describes how remarkable the observation is.